Prepare TSP for Down Markets: Optimize Your Thrift Savings Plan Strategy

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Ben Derge

Best TSP Strategy - Optimize Investments for Down Markets

Maximize your Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) retirement plan strategy. Then use our TSP calculator to estimate future value and secure retirement savings today! 

Maximize Your Future Value with the Thrift Savings Plan Calculator and Best TSP Strategy for Optimizing Investments in Down Markets

The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) is a retirement savings and investment plan similar to 401(k)s in the private sector, specifically designed for federal employees and members of the uniformed services. It offers a unique opportunity to maximize your savings and secure your retirement. Along with the current chaos occurring across the federal space, worrying about increased volatility in the stock market is top of mind amongst several federal employees and retirees. Keeping your retirement savings optimized for sudden downturns in the markets is a proactive step feds can take. For more proactive tips, read our checklist for preparing for possible RIF at your agency. This article will focus on the TSP, including strategies for extended periods of volatile investment performance, and also how to use our TSP retirement calculator to your full advantage. 

Strategies During Market Downturn to Secure Retirement Savings

Personal Finance Tips for Prosperous Retirement with the TSP

This article will mostly focus on more strategic aspects of investing in the TSP and saving for retirement, here is a reminder of some other quick tips regarding optimizing your plan for retiring from the federal government:

  • Take full advantage of employer matching and government matching – to get the full 5% match, feds have to contribute every pay period. 
  • Make catch-up contributions and get as close to the annual contributions limit as you can. Contributing enough to the Thrift Savings Plan to get the full match, maximizing employer contributions, is often not enough to build a comfortable retirement. Put in as much as your financial situation and budget allows, up to the limit, which is $23,500 in 2025. If you’re over 50, you can put in another $7500, and starting this year, even more can be contributed to the TSP if you are between the ages of 60 and 63
 
 

Understanding the Core Fund Options

While the Lifecycle (L) funds are a conservative way to allocate money in the federal retirement plan, they are tailor made for people who have limited experience or knowledge regarding investing. When factoring in an individual’s personal financial situation, it often found that the L-funds don’t align with their risk tolerance, overexposing their portfolio to the G-fund as the time horizon gets shorter. The G-fund certainly has a place in a federal employee’s retirement plan, but when you personalize your allocation (typically with the assistance of a fed-expert financial planner), it rarely matches with the L-fund corresponding to their target retirement date. It is important to think about long-term investment returns and not short-term ups and downs in the market. In general, according to modern portfolio theory, over time, stocks perform better than bonds, small stocks perform better than large stocks, and value stocks have higher returns than growth stocks. When formulating an investment strategy, keeping these guidelines in mind can be a significant factor in the future value – and accentuates why understanding the core fund options in the TSP is necessary. 

FundIndex Information
CTracks the S&P 500 Index (contains only US companies with large capitalization)
STracks the Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (contains small, medium, and large US stocks)
IIn 2024, this fund gradually switched indices, going from the MSCI EAFE to the MSCI ACWI IMI ex USA, ex China ex Hong Kong*. (contains only international companies, does not include China or Hong Kong)
FTracks the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index (fixed income, US bonds) 
GThe “Government Securities” fund, return is based on average return of US Treasury Securities

*For more information, check out this article about the I-Fund switching its underlying index.

Best TSP Strategy in Down Markets: Diversification is Key

Spread investments across different funds to balance risk and reward. A financial advisor that works with federal employees can help you identify the best way to diversify both within the TSP and in outside investment accounts, which offer more fund choices to become properly diversified. The TSP funds are inexpensive yet limited. For example, the S fund is not strictly comprised of small stocks, but includes medium and large companies as well. There is also no way to target value vs. growth or to invest in Chinese securities. While this is possible by utilizing the TSP’s mutual fund window, the fees and restrictions (such as a minimum TSP balance of $40,000) that accompany gaining access to the window are often too costly when compared to opportunities outside of what the TSP allows. Diversification is one of the core principles in managing investment risk and optimizing your overall annual return. By spreading your money across various TSP funds (like G, F, C, S, and I Funds), and possibly outside investments in an IRA, you reduce the impact of poor performance in a single asset class. For example, while stock-focused funds (C, S, I Funds) might experience volatility, bond-focused funds (G, F Funds) tend to be steadier, offering balance to your portfolio to offset the losses. 

The advisors at PlanWell can help you customize your retirement plan Schedule a Meeting. 

How to Use Our TSP Growth Calculator to Project Future Value

Inputs that the TSP Calculator Considers

Along with the FERS pension calculator, we have a TSP calculator requires several key inputs to provide accurate estimates of your future savings. The TSP calculator is good for civilian and military personnel and you will need to input the following information to submit for calculation: your current TSP account balance, expected rate of return, number of years until retirement, and annual contribution amounts. By considering these factors, the calculator will show you how much you can expect to accumulate in your TSP account by the time you reach retirement. This information is crucial for planning your financial future and ensuring that your savings are aligned with your retirement goals.

How Accurate Are the Results Provided by the TSP Calculator?

The accuracy of the results provided by the TSP calculator depends on the quality and precision of the inputs you provide. While the calculator is a powerful tool for estimating your future savings, it is important to remember that it relies on assumptions about future market conditions, yearly contribution levels, and inflation. As such, the results should be viewed as estimates rather than guarantees. Regularly reviewing and updating your inputs can help improve the accuracy of the calculator’s projections, allowing you to make more informed decisions about your retirement savings strategy. 

How Can TSP Fund Performance Impact Your Savings?

TSP fund performance plays a critical role in determining the growth of your retirement savings. The performance of each fund is influenced by various factors, including market conditions, interest rates, and economic trends. By regularly reviewing TSP share prices and TSP share price history, you can gain insights into how different funds are performing and make adjustments to your investment strategy as needed. It’s important to consider both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends when evaluating TSP fund performance. By staying informed and making strategic adjustments to your investment allocations, you can optimize your savings and increase the likelihood of achieving your retirement goals.

The TSP Calculator Helps You Estimate Savings Potential in Planning for Retirement and Financial Security

Yes, the TSP calculator is an invaluable tool for planning your retirement. You can use the calculator to estimate your future monthly payment. By providing a clear picture of your potential savings, it helps you determine whether your current contribution levels and investment choices are sufficient to meet your retirement goals. The calculator can also help you explore different scenarios, such as increasing your contributions or adjusting your investment strategy, to see how these changes might impact your future savings. By using the TSP calculator as part of your overall retirement planning process, you can make more informed decisions and take proactive steps to maximize your savings and secure your financial future.

What Are the TSP Withdrawal Options?

What Is the Thrift Savings Plan Withdrawal Age?

The Thrift Savings Plan withdrawal age is an important consideration for participants planning their retirement. Generally, you can begin withdrawing from your TSP account without penalty once you reach the age of 59½. However, if you separate from federal service in the year you turn 55 or later, you may be eligible to make penalty-free withdrawals before age 59½. Understanding the TSP withdrawal age and the rules surrounding it is crucial for planning your retirement income strategy. By carefully timing your withdrawals, you can minimize penalties and maximize the value of your retirement savings.

How Do Thrift Savings Plan Withdrawal Options Affect Your Retirement?

The Thrift Savings Plan offers several withdrawal options that can impact your retirement income strategy. These options include taking a lump-sum withdrawal, setting up installment payments, or purchasing a TSP annuity. Each option has its own advantages and considerations, depending on your financial needs and goals. For example, a lump-sum withdrawal provides immediate access to your funds but may result in a significant tax liability. Installment payments offer a steady stream of income, while a TSP annuity provides guaranteed lifetime income. Understanding the different withdrawal options and how they align with your retirement goals is essential for making informed decisions about your retirement income strategy.

TSP Talk: What Are the Tax Implications of Retirement Withdrawals?

The tax implications of TSP withdrawals are an important consideration for participants planning their retirement income strategy. Generally, withdrawals from a traditional TSP account are subject to federal income tax, as contributions were made with pre-tax dollars. However, if you have a Roth TSP account, qualified withdrawals are tax-free, as contributions were made with after-tax dollars. It’s important to understand the tax implications of your TSP withdrawals and plan accordingly to minimize your tax liability. Consulting with a tax advisor can help you navigate the complexities of TSP withdrawals and develop a tax-efficient retirement income strategy.

 

Reach Out to Us!

If you have additional federal benefit questions, contact our team of CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®)Chartered Federal Employee Benefits Consultants (ChFEBC℠), and Accredited Investment Fiduciary (AIF) professionals. At PlanWell, we are federal employee financial advisors with a focus on retirement planning. Learn more about our process designed for the career fed.

Preparing for federal retirement? Check out our scheduled federal retirement workshops. Sign up for our no-cost federal retirement webinars here! Make sure to plan ahead and reserve your seat for our FERS webinar, held every three weeks. Want to have PlanWell host a federal retirement seminar for your agency? Reach out, and we’ll collaborate with HR to arrange an on-site FERS seminar.

Want to fast-track your federal retirement plan? Skip the FERS webinar and start a one-on-one conversation with a ChFEBC today. You can schedule a one-on-one meeting here.